Antigenic cartography using hamster sera identifies SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 evasion seen in human XBB.1.5 booster sera (preprint)

Antigenic assessments of SARS-CoV-2 variants inform decisions to update COVID-19 vaccines. Primary infection sera are often used for assessments, but such sera are rare due to population immunity from SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 vaccinations. Here, we show that neutralization titers and breadth of matched human and hamster pre-Omicron variant primary infection sera correlate well and generate similar antigenic maps. The hamster antigenic map shows modest antigenic drift among XBB sub-lineage variants, with JN.1 and BA.4/BA.5 variants within the XBB cluster, but with five to six-fold antigenic differences between these variants and XBB.1.5. Compared to sera following only ancestral or bivalent COVID-19 vaccinations, or with post-vaccination infections, XBB.1.5 booster sera had the broadest neutralization against XBB sub-lineage variants, although a five-fold titer difference was still observed between JN.1 and XBB.1.5 variants. These findings suggest that antibody coverage of antigenically divergent JN.1 could be improved with a matched vaccine antigen.

LETHAL COVID-19 ASSOCIATES WITH RAAS-INDUCED INFLAMMATION FOR MULTIPLE ORGAN DAMAGE INCLUDING MEDIASTINAL LYMPH NODES (preprint)

Lethal COVID-19 causation most often invokes classic cytokine storm and attendant excessive immune signaling. We re-visit this question using RNA sequencing in nasopharyngeal and 40 autopsy samples from both COVID-19-positive and negative individuals. In nasal swabs, the top 100 genes expressed, and significantly correlated with COVID-19 viral load, indeed include many canonical innate immune genes. However, 22 much less studied \"non-canonical\" genes are found and despite the absence of viral transcripts, subsets of these are upregulated in heart, lung, kidney, and liver, but not mediastinal lymph nodes. An important regulatory potential emerges for the non-canonical genes for over-activating the renin-angiotensin-activation-system (RAAS) pathway, resembling this phenomenon in hereditary angioedema (HAE) and its overlapping multiple features with lethal COVID-19 infections. Specifically, RAAS overactivation links increased fibrin deposition, leaky vessels, thrombotic tendency, and initiating the PANoptosis death pathway, as suggested in heart, lung, and especially mediastinal lymph nodes, and a tight association mitochondrial dysfunction linked to immune responses. For mediastinal lymph nodes, immunohistochemistry studies correlate showing abnormal architecture, excess fibrin and collagen deposition, and pathogenic fibroblasts. Further, our findings overlap these for COVID-19 infected hamsters, C57BL/6 and BALB/c mouse models, and importantly peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) and whole blood samples from COVID-19 patients infected with early alpha but also later COVID-19 omicron strains. We thus present cytokine storm in lethal COVID-19 disease as an interplay between upstream immune gene signaling producing downstream RAAS overactivation with resultant severe organ damage, especially compromising mediastinal lymph node function.

Comparative Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Antigenicity across Assays and in Human and Animal Model Sera (preprint)

The antigenic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 requires ongoing monitoring to judge the immune escape of newly arising variants. A surveillance system necessitates an understanding of differences in neutralization titers measured in different assays and using human and animal sera. We compared 18 datasets generated using human, hamster, and mouse sera, and six different neutralization assays. Titer magnitude was lowest in human, intermediate in hamster, and highest in mouse sera. Fold change, immunodominance patterns and antigenic maps were similar among sera. Most assays yielded similar results, except for differences in fold change in cytopathic effect assays. Not enough data was available for conclusively judging mouse sera, but hamster sera were a consistent surrogate for human first-infection sera.

Immune and behavioral correlates of protection against symptomatic post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection (preprint)

Background: We sought to determine immune and behavioral pre-infection correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 post-vaccine infections in a joint analysis of epidemiological and immunological cohort data. Methods: Serum and saliva samples from 176 BNT162b2-vaccinated adults in the Prospective Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Seroconversion study were collected between October and December 2021 and assessed for serum and saliva levels of Wuhan-1 wild-type (WT) SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S)-specific IgG and IgA binding antibodies (bAb) using a multiplex microsphere-based immunoassay (MMIA). Serum samples were also assessed for WT receptor binding domain (RBD)-specific bAb by two commercial assays, BA.1 S-specific IgG bAb by MMIA, and neutralization activity against D614G, Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron BA.1 and BA.1.1 variants using a lentiviral pseudovirus neutralization assay. After the Fall 2021 visit, participants reported all positive PCR and/or antigen tests for SARS-CoV-2. Duration, severity, and type of symptoms, as well as risk exposures and adherence to precautionary measures, were assessed by questionnaires during the Spring 2022 visit. Results: Thirty-two participants (18.2%) developed symptomatic post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infections (PVI) between December 7, 2021 and April 1, 2022. Pre-infection WT (geometric mean (GM) of 3,863 vs 2,736 binding antibody unit [BAU]/ml, uninfected vs PVI, p=0.0098) and BA.1 (GM of 276.9 vs 179.9 arbitrary bAb unit [AU]/ml, uninfected vs PVI, p=0.04) anti-S IgG bAb levels measured by MMIA and neutralizing titers (NT) against BA.1 (GM titer [GMT] of 493.6 vs 286.2, uninfected vs PVI, p=0.0313) and BA.1.1 (GMT of 552.0 vs 302.5, uninfected vs PVI, p=0.021) were significantly higher in individuals that did not develop PVIs. WT anti-S bAb levels greater than 5,000 BAU/ml were associated with > 90% protection against symptomatic PVI. In individuals that developed PVI, WT anti-S IgG bAb levels correlated with lower disease severity scores ({rho}= -0.3859, p=0.032) and shorter duration of clinical disease ({rho}= -0.5273, p=0.0023). WT anti-RBD bAb levels measured by commercial assays correlated strongly with bAb levels measured by MMIA ({rho}=0.8239, p<0.0001 and {rho}=0.6929, p<0.0001, Roche and Siemens assays, respectively), but did not reach statistical significance for correlation with protection against PVI. Home risk score, but neither work nor home precautionary measures, correlated strongly with risk of PVI (mean score of 20.77 vs 47.33, uninfected vs PVI respectively, p<0.0001). Conclusions: Anti-S IgG bAb levels (directed against either WT or Omicron BA.1 subvariant) and NTs served as correlates of protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Anti-S (WT) IgG bAb levels remained a significant correlate of protection against PVIs when adjusting for demography and risk behavior. Results of this study also suggest that commercial assays for anti-S bAb may need to be reformatted to enable detection of higher maximum values for use as predictors of increased susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Bivalent COVID-19 vaccine antibody responses to Omicron variants suggest that responses to divergent variants would be improved with matched vaccine antigens (preprint)

We compared neutralizing antibody responses to BA.4/5, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1.5 Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants after a bivalent or ancestral COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccine or post-vaccination infection. We found that the bivalent booster elicited moderately high antibody titers against BA.4/5 that were approximately two-fold higher against all Omicron variants than titers elicited by the monovalent booster. The bivalent booster elicited low but similar titers against both XBB and XBB.1.5 variants. These findings inform risk assessments for future COVID-19 vaccine recommendations and suggest that updated COVID-19 vaccines containing matched vaccine antigens to circulating divergent variants may be needed.

Post-vaccination Omicron infections induce broader immunity across antigenic space than prototype mRNA COVID-19 booster vaccination or primary infection (preprint)

The rapid emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants challenges vaccination strategies. Here, we measured antigenic diversity among variants and interpreted neutralizing antibody responses following single and multiple exposures in longitudinal infection and vaccine cohorts. Antigenic cartography using primary infection antisera showed that BA.2, BA.4/BA.5, and BA.2.12.1 are distinct from BA.1 and closer to the Beta cluster. Three doses of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine increased breadth to BA.1 more than to BA.4/BA.5 or BA.2.12.1. Omicron BA.1 post-vaccination infection elicited antibody landscapes characterized by broader immunity across antigenic space than three doses alone, although with less breadth than expected to BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5. Those with Omicron BA.1 infection after two or three vaccinations had similar neutralizing titer magnitude and antigenic breadth. Accounting for antigenic differences among variants of concern when interpreting neutralizing antibody titers aids understanding of complex patterns in humoral immunity and informs selection of future COVID-19 vaccine strains.

Topological data analysis identifies distinct biomarker phenotypes during the inflammatory phase of COVID-19 (preprint)

OBJECTIVES: The relationships between baseline clinical phenotypes and the cytokine milieu of the peak inflammatory phase of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) are not yet well understood. We used Topological Data Analysis (TDA), a dimensionality reduction technique to identify patterns of inflammation associated with COVID-19 severity and clinical characteristics. DESIGN: Exploratory analysis from a multi-center prospective cohort study. SETTING: Eight military hospitals across the United States between April 2020 and January 2021. PATIENTS: Adult ([≥]18 years of age) SARS-CoV-2 positive inpatient and outpatient participants were enrolled with plasma samples selected from the putative inflammatory phase of COVID-19, defined as 15-28 days post symptom onset. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Concentrations of 12 inflammatory protein biomarkers were measured using a broad dynamic range immunoassay. TDA identified 3 distinct inflammatory protein expression clusters. Peak severity (outpatient, hospitalized, ICU admission or death), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and body mass index (BMI) were evaluated with logistic regression for associations with each cluster. The study population (n=129, 33.3% female, median 41.3 years of age) included 77 outpatient, 31 inpatient, 16 ICU-level, and 5 fatal cases. Three distinct clusters were found that differed by peak disease severity (p <0.001), age (p <0.001), BMI (p<0.001), and CCI (p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Exploratory clustering methods can stratify heterogeneous patient populations and identify distinct inflammation patterns associated with comorbid disease, obesity, and severe illness due to COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron neutralization by therapeutic antibodies, convalescent sera, and post-mRNA vaccine booster (preprint)

The rapid spread of the highly contagious Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 along with its high number of mutations in the spike gene has raised alarm about the effectiveness of current medical countermeasures. To address this concern, we measured neutralizing antibodies against Omicron in three important settings: (1) post-vaccination sera after two and three immunizations with the Pfizer/BNT162b2 vaccine, (2) convalescent sera from unvaccinated individuals infected by different variants, and (3) clinical-stage therapeutic antibodies. Using a pseudovirus neutralization assay, we found that titers against Omicron were low or undetectable after two immunizations and in most convalescent sera. A booster vaccination significantly increased titers against Omicron to levels comparable to those seen against the ancestral (D614G) variant after two immunizations. Neither age nor sex were associated with differences in post-vaccination antibody responses. Only three of 24 therapeutic antibodies tested retained their full potency against Omicron and high-level resistance was seen against fifteen. These findings underscore the potential benefit of booster mRNA vaccines for protection against Omicron and the need for additional therapeutic antibodies that are more robust to highly mutated variants. One Sentence Summary Third dose of Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine significantly boosts neutralizing antibodies to the Omicron variant compared to a second dose, while neutralization of Omicron by convalescent sera, two-dose vaccine-elicited sera, or therapeutic antibodies is variable and often low.

Prioritizing interventions for preventing COVID-19 outbreaks in military basic training (preprint)

Like other congregate living settings, military basic training has been subject to outbreaks of COVID-19. We sought to identify improved strategies for preventing outbreaks in this setting using an agent-based model of a hypothetical cohort of trainees on a U.S. Army post. Our analysis revealed unique aspects of basic training that require customized approaches to outbreak prevention, which draws attention to the possibility that customized approaches may be necessary in other settings, too. In particular, we showed that introductions by trainers and support staff may be a major vulnerability, given that those individuals remain at risk of community exposure throughout the training period. We also found that increased testing of trainees upon arrival could actually increase the risk of outbreaks, given the potential for false-positive test results to lead to susceptible individuals becoming infected in group isolation and seeding outbreaks in training units upon release. Until an effective transmission-blocking vaccine is adopted at high coverage by individuals involved with basic training, need will persist for non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent outbreaks in military basic training. Ongoing uncertainties about virus variants and breakthrough infections necessitate continued vigilance in this setting, even as vaccination coverage increases.

A comparative recombination analysis of human coronaviruses and implications for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic prompts evaluation of recombination in human coronavirus (hCoV) evolution. We undertook recombination analyses of 158,118 public seasonal hCoV, SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV genome sequences using the RDP4 software. We found moderate evidence for 8 SARS-CoV-2 recombination events, two of which involved the spike gene, and low evidence for one SARS-CoV-1 recombination event. Within MERS-CoV, 229E, OC43, NL63 and HKU1 datasets, we noted 7, 1, 9, 14, and 1 high-confidence recombination events, respectively. There was propensity for recombination breakpoints in structural genes, and recombination severely skewed the temporal structure of these data, especially for NL63 and OC43. Bayesian time-scaled analyses on recombinant-free data indicated the sampled diversity of seasonal CoVs emerged in the last 70 years, with 229E displaying continuous lineage replacements. These findings emphasize the importance of genomic based surveillance to detect recombination in SARS-CoV-2, particularly if recombination may lead to immune evasion.